NFL Week 4 observations

Week 4 of the NFL season is one game away from its end, meaning 28 teams are now through the first quarter of their season. By this point all the rust should have been knocked off and we can start to get some real takeaways from each team.

With that being the case, what were my main observations from this weekend’s action?

The Buffalo Bills are a legitimate playoff contender

I’d be lying if I said I expected to be saying this, but Sunday’s loss to the Patriots showed how talented most of this team is.

It may not have been Brady and Co.’s finest day, but that’s in large part thanks to a very stout Bills defense. This defense is playing very good, sound football on all three levels and gave the Patriots’ offense all sorts of problems. In fact, take away a blocked punt returned for a touchdown and the Bills would have won this game, thanks to the defense.

The issue for the Bills is their offense. Yes, they were playing the best defense in the NFL, but Josh Allen still has a lot of maturing to do before this offense can be relied upon. He is undoubtedly talented and produced several good plays, and will continue to do so, but he is very careless with the ball. His aggressiveness can be a strength, and will need to be, much like Brett Favre, but if he cannot cut down the turnovers he will only hold this team back.

Nevertheless, the Patriots and Chiefs sit atop the AFC as unquestioned powerhouses, but after them there is a gap before the next group of teams. With more mature play from Allen I don’t see why the Bills aren't a legitimate contender in the next group of AFC teams.

Speaking of a team exceeding expectations…

The Detroit Lions mean business

There is an argument that the Chiefs simply experienced an off-day that is inevitable to every team, and they still won, which is possibly a knock on the Lions. However, I don’t see it that way.

The Lions played very well against one of three or four legitimately great teams. Defensively they played sound football and prevented any trademark big plays from the Chiefs' offense. They also put pressure on Patrick Mahomes, who at times looked a little flustered, and forced several turnovers to stay in the game, all without Darius Slay. Through a pretty tough start to the season, this defense has come out looking pretty good.

Offensively the Lions were very good, and if they had gotten the ball last I believe they would have won this game. In fact, they were six inches away from doing so. Matthew Stafford played very well and reminded everyone of his arm talent with several ‘wow’ throws. They also had a great running game, totaling 186 yards on the ground.

This team, if they can stay healthy, is playing well enough and is talented enough to stay competitive in a very good NFC North and seriously challenge for a playoff spot.

The AFC is wide open

I mentioned this when talking about the Bills, but after the Patriots and Chiefs there is no standout team in the AFC. Last week I would have told you the Baltimore Ravens were the clear third team in the AFC, but Sunday’s loss to the Cleveland Browns revealed some huge issues with this team.

Eight AFC teams are 2-2, and the Patriots, Chiefs and Bills are the only AFC teams over .500. Overall this speaks to the gap between the Patriots and Chiefs and everyone else. All of the 2-2 teams have reasons to be optimistic about making the playoffs, with one being relevant to all of them in that every one of them is inconsistent on a weekly basis.

Right now, the Chargers, Texans, Ravens, Browns and Colts figure to be the favorites among the 2-2 teams, but they each have had or continue to show significant issues that could easily derail their season. It’s shaping up to be a pretty chaotic race for the playoffs in the AFC and someone has to take charge soon.

The number one seed is in the New Orleans Saints’ hands

The value of the Saints’ wins over the Seahawks and Cowboys cannot be understated. Even with Drew Brees, if the Saints had been 2-2 at this point they’d likely have been pleased. Instead they’re 3-1 despite having to rely on the defense and Teddy Bridgewater.

When Brees went down the Saints just needed Bridgewater to hold the fort and stay at or above .500. Now, regardless of how good the performances are, the Saints could hand the keys back to Brees with the Saints in one of the top two seeds in the NFC, with crucial tie-breaks over the Seahawks and Cowboys.

The Rams do have a tie-break over the Saints, but how the Saints have played makes me trust them to not drop games more than I do the Rams. As a result I think the Saints now sit atop the AFC as the team to beat, even over the Packers, Cowboys, Rams or Bears.

Quick Hits

Here are some other observations I had that I’m not going to break down, but hit me up to talk about them or give me your own!

• Jameis Winston may be salvageable after all.
• In the last two weeks Jameis Winston has shown exactly why he is still being trusted to be the Buccaneers' franchise QB. He has by no means been perfect, but perhaps Bruce Arians is starting to turn Winston’s career around.
• The Browns are turning into the team everyone thought they’d be.
• Behind a strong defense and running game, the Browns' win on Sunday saw them take on the form of the team we thought they’d be this offseason.
• The Carolina Panthers cannot be overlooked as a playoff challenger.
• The defense has been on fire over the last two weeks and Christian McCaffrey is playing like an MVP candidate. If Kyle Allen can continue to play steady football, and cuts down on the fumbles, this team is absolutely poised to take advantage of a fairly mediocre pack in the NFC.
• The Dan Quinn era in Atlanta may be over.
• The Falcons are a talented team, but Dan Quinn has failed to guide them to the heights he should have after their Super Bowl loss, and it’s time for the team to look for a change in culture to get back to winning ways.
• The Washington Redskins need to hit the reset button.
• While I think the Falcons only need a new coach with new ideas, the Redskins need to reset everything. They need a new staff and a new team. Not to say they should give up on every player, but it’s time for a hard reset in D.C. and a rebuild.