Have the Green Bay Packers failed Aaron Rodgers?

With the 26th pick in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft, the Green Bay Packers select...

The Green Bay Packers have been a perennial contender in the NFL since the 1990s. Why? Thanks in large part to one position: Quarterback. 

Whether you’re a diehard football fan, or someone who still argues its name is stupid because you don’t play with your feet, you’re probably aware of the quarterback position and its importance. 

Packers fans have gotten to enjoy nearly 30 years of some of the best QB play we have ever seen. Brett Favre set the league on fire, only to be replaced by Aaron Rodgers, arguably the most talented passer to ever play in the NFL.

DÉJÀ VU: This isn't the first time the Packers have shocked a legend in the first round

In that time they have a 0.627 winning percentage (Rodgers and Favre have missed time through injury), and have seen 108,601 passing yards and 806 passing touchdowns - the most by any two players for the same team in that span.

And yet the two Super Bowls they have to show for it seem a little disappointing.

As they normally do, the Packers saw their season end in the playoffs. This year it happened to be a beatdown in the NFC Championship game against a familiar playoff foe, the San Francisco 49ers, who one year ago had the second overall pick in the Draft.

It was a season which saw a new permanent head coach for the first time in 13 years, with Matt LaFleur taking over from Mike McCarthy. The team was active in free agency, bringing in a duo of pass rushers among others, and seemed destined for a Super Bowl push revitalized by some long overdue change.

TENSION: Reports of tension between LaFleur and Rodgers are bubbling up

Throughout the season the team was tough to read, showing off a championship caliber team one week, to a misfiring team with holes on the roster the next. Nevertheless, they found themselves one game away from the Super Bowl having ridden some signature Rodgers magic to a 13-3 regular season record. 

However, falling short, in the manner they did, highlighted what seemed to be the priority moving forward: Rodgers’ need for a bit more talent around him to take this team over the edge. 

Thursday April 23rd. The Packers have just moved up in the first round, of a draft rich in receiver talent - a big need for the team and want for the fans - to jump ahead of other receiver needy teams, with players like Tee Higgins and Laviska Shenault, among many others, available. 

"With the 26th pick in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft, the Green Bay Packers select... Jordan Love, Quarterback, Utah State."

NEXT MAN UP: Love has all the tools to become an elite NFL QB

"Wait, what?"

With everyone in their own home, with no draft parties or gatherings happening, the NFL world could virtually hear those words come from every Packers fans’ mouth. 

It’s a moment not too dissimilar from a franchise defining moment 15 years prior, when the Packers finally stopped Rodgers’ slide in the 2005 Draft.

Nevertheless, the pick remains shocking, if only because Rodgers seems set on playing many more years and the Packers seem just one or two pieces away from truly competing to be the last team standing. 

If the post-pick reaction is anything to go by, the Packers have severely let down Rodgers, the team, and the fans. They’ve wasted some of the best QB play the world has ever seen, and this year started putting the nails in the coffin of his Packers career. 

In picking his heir apparent, the Packers blatantly signaled the final failure to put elite talent around Rodgers, just hours after he said on the Pat McAfee show: “We haven’t picked a skill player in the first round in 15 years, so that would be kind of cool.”

By the time the draft had ended the jury seemed very much out on the 2020 Packers draft, citing a lack of players who could help the team win now.

Then, when it seemed it couldn’t become worse, a miraculous stat was uncovered.

YIKES: This can't be right?

Surely now it’s obvious that; the Packers have seriously failed to put elite talent around Rodgers; Rodgers has an even stronger case to be named the most talented QB to ever play. 

The second part of that is true. Undoubtedly so. Tom Brady is the Greatest of all Time, but nobody has ever been able to throw a football like Aaron Rodgers (Patrick Mahomes likely has something to say about this, but we’ll wait until he’s played longer than three years to crown him).

But have the Green Bay Packers really failed to give Aaron Rodgers the talent he deserves? 

On the surface it seems so, but if you want to use the draft position of his pass catchers as a metric you need the full picture.

The most glaring takeaway is still, of course, Rodgers' one touchdown pass to a first round pick – Marcedes Lewis, first round pick of the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2006. The only other instance of a QB having thrown only one touchdown pass in a round is Fran Tarkenton in the sixth. Even then, Rodgers’ one to a first rounder gives him the lowest percentage of total touchdown passes by round.

It becomes even more glaring when compared to both Mannings, particularly Peyton, which shows the difference in how a franchise can help their QB. Peyton’s top four touchdown catchers were first round picks and he has the highest percentage of touchdown passes from one round, 54.36% in the first.

Not far behind, though, is Rodgers and the second round.

More than half, 52.47%, of Rodgers’ touchdown passes have gone to second round players. Four of his top five touchdown receivers were picked in the second, the odd one out being James Jones in the third.

In total, 273 of his 364 touchdown passes, 75%, have come from rounds two and three. In fact, Rodgers has a significantly higher touchdown percentage from rounds two and three than the next closest, Eli Manning, 65.85%, or Peyton Manning, 65.31%, have in the first three rounds.

SQUAD: The Packers are standing pat with their receiving corps

Nevertheless, first round talent is important. Per overthecap.com, in 2018, 14.2% of rostered players were first round picks, the highest number of any round. In terms of veterans, or players who have earned a second contract, 19.9% are first rounders, again the highest of any round. Only undrafted players make up more of NFL rosters, 32.2% and 27.1% respectively.

While Rodgers has relied heavily on players from the second and third round, albeit at an incredibly high level, this does further questions about the Packers’ ability to consistently put good or better players around Rodgers. Not only are they not getting them in the first round, they are finding them at a generally lower rate outside of the top three rounds than the comparable teams.

To make matters worse, in the first round at least, it isn’t even a case of the Packers swinging and missing; they’re striking out looking.

OLD FRIEND: Rodgers and Nelson is one of the greatest QB/WR partnerships in NFL history

Since Rodgers was drafted by the Packers in 2005, the highest drafted offensive skill position player is Jordy Nelson, with the 36^th overall pick in 2008. The Packers have actually only drafted two offensive players in the first round since 2005, three if you include Jordan Love this year. Both were offensive tackles. Wise investments, but not the types of picks most fans will recognize when a perceived bigger need at receiver, running back or tight end was overlooked.

So what is the result of that? The Packers have watched too many incredible Rodgers seasons miss out on a Super Bowl, wasting the most talented QB of his generation in reaching only one Super Bowl.

But, like Rodgers’ production with first round talent, it needs context and comparison.

CHAMPION: The Super Bowl has eluded Rodgers ever since he got his hands on the Lombardi

Since Rodgers was drafted in 2005, 17 teams, including his Packers, have made one Super Bowl. Only seven have made two or more. 11 teams have won one Super Bowl and only three have won two or more. This means the Packers are on par with or better than 24 franchises in terms of appearances and 28 other franchises in terms of wins.

If you look from 2008 and on, when Rodgers took over the starting job, only the New England Patriots have won multiple Super Bowls, and only four teams have made it to multiple.

When Rodgers has been healthy the Packers have had better QB play than at least 27 or so teams, but the story is not so different for several of the QBs in that table.

Peyton Manning made it to two Super Bowls with the Colts, winning one. Philip Rivers has never been able to get past the AFC Championship game. Drew Brees has only ever played in one Super Bowl. Dan Marino played in just one Super Bowl, but unlike Rodgers doesn’t have a ring to show for it. All of these players have had more first round targets and late round targets to prop them up.

Maybe the Packers have always leaned on Rodgers too much, overlooking fatal flaws on the roster or underestimating the need for ‘star’ offensive power, but the Packers’ struggles are as much a testament to the competitiveness of the NFL and the struggle it is to actually reach a Super Bowl.

At its core, this stat does very little to offer much comment about the efforts of a franchise or the quality of its QB. In truth, any player from any round can go on to become the best at their position, that is the unpredictable nature of the NFL Draft. These stats instead highlight the philosophical differences between franchises when it comes to team building and roster construction.

Ultimately, the payoff have been fairly similar - save the New England Patriots.

TOO FAMILIAR: Packers fans are growing impatient with coming up short

Where to now, though? Since the culmination of the 2020 NFL Draft the speculation surrounding Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers has been constant. What was the goal of this draft? Where is this team heading? Is Aaron Rodgers on his way out of Green Bay? Is Matt LaFleur fed up with Rodgers after just one season?

The selection of Jordan Love was a great pick. Rodgers may be set on playing until he’s 40, and until this draft possibly never questioned if it would be anywhere other than Wisconsin. But, it isn’t the Packers job to keep him happy and wait until he leaves to find the future of the franchise.

In Love they are drafting a player who has immense potential thanks to an incredibly live arm and pure arm talent. At Utah State he had an underwhelming team and suffered as a result, but he shows plenty on tape to highlight his ceiling.

He is capable of moving around the pocket and scanning the entire field, progressing from read to read before firing a laser to virtually any blade of grass. He’s good on the move and can extend plays well.

With those tools he is the ideal candidate to pick in this scenario because there is absolutely zero pressure to start for at least two years, potentially three – much like when Rodgers came to town in 2005. He can dedicate all of his time to developing and learning behind Rodgers, while the incumbent continues to chase another ring with a little extra fire lit beneath him.

When it comes to the QB position there is no price too high to get the guy you covet. Time will tell if it plays out, like with every draft pick, but if the Packers have this one right they may have added another 10+ years to the greatest consecutive QB play a team has seen since the San Francisco 49ers dynasty.

After the selection of Love, though, is where the draft becomes really questionable for many people.

CHANGE OF PACE: Dillon brings a completely new vibe to the Packers offense

Whether you feel it should have been addressed in the first round or not, wide receiver is a need for this team. Behind Davante Adams the Packers are in need of a consistent, dependable secondary receiver. Luckily, this draft was considered one of the most talented receiver classes in years.

The Packers didn’t draft one. Not one.

Instead they added Boston College running back AJ Dillon in the second, Cincinnati tight end Josiah Deguara in the third, Minnesota linebacker Kamal Martin in the fifth, Michigan guard Joe Runyan Jr., Oregon center Jake Hanson and Indiana guard Simon Stepaniak in the sixth, and TCU safety Vernon Scott and Miami edge Jonathan Garvin in the seventh.

Dillon is the ideal ground and pound type back to spell Aaron Jones and round out the ground game, while Deguara is a great scheme fit with excellent athleticism and potential. Despite not getting a receiver, these picks do make the offense better, and all three lineman offer experience and versatility which is invaluable.

However, other than pass catchers, the largest need on this team was shoring up the run defense and adding more bodies to the secondary. Martin and Scott go some way to satisfying those needs, but do leave something to be desired in terms of immediate impact.

Overall, the shock of trading up for a QB combined with unspectacular and perhaps unexpected picks has left Packers fans with a sour taste in their mouths. However, that’s not reason to lose faith, nor is it reason to believe the Packers are starting to say goodbye to the Rodgers experience.

STILL HERE: Rodgers isn't going anywhere

Rodgers retains one of the best offensive lines in the league, he has a top five receiver in Davante Adams, a fast rising star at running back in Aaron Jones, now propped up by an athletic freak in AJ Dillon, along with a host of young skill players with varying levels of production.

Perhaps more importantly, the team is entering year two of the LaFleur system. The team has a year of knowledge under its belt, and now has more pieces picked to fit his scheme.

The team went 13-3 last year in LaFleur’s first year, and now with minimal personnel loss and some sneakily useful additions, this team can be ready to roll again.

Despite what it may seem, the Green Bay Packers haven’t failed Rodgers, nor have they written him off. Aaron Rodgers shouldn’t be going anywhere, and the Packers shouldn’t be underestimated.