Is Boston College's AJ Dillon the next Leonard Fournette?

As is customary in the lead-up to new college football seasons, players are studied in immense depth in preparation for their evaluation for the NFL Draft. This is particularly true for players that had breakout seasons the year prior. Will they fall back down to earth? Can their success continue? Could they possibly improve?

These are all questions that need answering for fans across the nation. One of the targets of a lot of hype stemming from last season is Boston College true sophomore running back AJ Dillon.

Since Steve Addazio took over at the Heights, the Eagles’ offense has been based heavily on a power-run scheme. In his first year it worked beautifully. Andre Williams, a senior, took over the team and ran for a whopping 2177 yards and 18 touchdowns – he had just 1562 yards and ten touchdowns in the previous three years combined. He finished the year with the fifth most rushing yards in a single season in NCAA history, he won the Walter Camp award and was a finalist for the Heisman trophy.

Since then BC have struggled to find a running back who could produce similarly to Williams. However, in 2017 that changed in a big way. Through the first six weeks of the season BC struggled offensively and things had to change. So, in Week 7 facing a Lamar Jackson-led Louisville team, Addazio decided to start and feature a true freshman running back. AJ Dillon got his first real opportunity and he took it and ran with it.

He finished the game with 39 carries for 272 yards and four touchdowns. Yes, you read that right. Within those astronomical numbers was potentially the most emphatic touchdown run of the 2017 FBS season. He embarrassed two Cardinal defenders and then outran the rest for a 75-yard touchdown. He went on to finish the season with 300 carries for 1589 yards and 14 touchdowns. Considering he didn’t start a game until Week 7, those numbers are outrageous.

Naturally then, the hype was real coming into this season. Having seen what Williams did with BC when starting a full season, coupled with Dillon’s performance in 2017, expectations are sky high for Dillon in 2018.

Unlike Williams, though, Dillon is being held in regard with some of the best college football running backs in recent memory. Namely former LSU running back and current Jaguars running back Leonard Fournette.

AJ Dillon has been called many things:
✔️ The best college player you’ve never heard of
✔️ The next Leonard Fournette
✔️ Scary good without even scratching the surface

Remember the name ✍️https://t.co/tOiFg6J9aT pic.twitter.com/mJM3hdtqow

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) August 29, 2018

Initially, rather ignorantly, I scoffed at that notion. Partially because of how highly I rate Fournette, and partially because I hadn’t actually seen much of Dillon and due to what came of Williams once he was in the NFL, I assumed Dillon’s success was largely due to BC's system. Then, I read the above article, suggesting he would have been an ideal candidate to be one-and-done in college football.

Having read that article I wanted to look into it for myself to make my own judgement. Happily, the timing couldn’t have been better as the following weekend I would be attending Boston College’s season opener. I would be able to watch Dillon in person. So, with that game in the rear-view mirror, could AJ Dillon really be the next Leonard Fournette?

If nothing else, he looks the part. At the NFL Scouting Combine last year, Fournette was measured at 6’, 240lbs. Though that wasn’t a bad 240lbs, it was muscular. Per ESPN.com, Dillon is 6’, 240lbs. And per the previously mentioned article on Bleacher Report, Dillon has just 8% body fat. Having seen Dillon in person I don’t find that hard to believe, he is stacked. His thighs look like tree trunks and his upper body is solid, he carries the weight very well.

The similarities don’t end there. What makes Fournette so scary for would-be tacklers, in addition to his size and weight, is his elite speed. Fournette was timed at 4.51 seconds in his 40-yard dash and was clocked at 22.05 mph on his 90-yard touchdown run against the Steelers last season. Admittedly, he dropped down to 228 pounds after the combine, but his size still stands out. Dillon, on the other hand, doesn’t have any 40-yard dash times nor an official speed clocked during a game. However, as a senior in high school he ran an 11.19 second 100m and as you can see in his long run against Louisville he pulled away from defenders as he galloped down the sideline. At 240lbs that is incredible.

Clearly, as far as measurables are concerned, he matches up pretty similarly to Fournette, so the comparison holds up there. How about in his play, though?

Having gone back to watch last year’s tape of Dillon, and watching him in person and on tape against UMass last weekend, I’m not ready to say Dillon matches up to Fournette on the field.

What is most evident is that mentally he is behind Fournette. When Fournette arrived at LSU he had been playing the game at the highest levels of high school football, with top-level coaching, for all four years possible. He knew the game and how to play running back. He knew how to follow and set up his blockers, he knew to run with patience to identify running lanes and gaps, he could pass protect and was a weapon in the passing game. You can see all of this in the video below. 

Dillon wasn’t at that stage of his development last year and isn’t fully there yet this year. But that isn’t a knock on him, at least not yet. Unlike Fournette, Dillon didn’t receive top-level, position specific coaching until he arrived at Boston College. His high school team didn’t have dedicated position coaches, he wasn’t at a high school or in a state with as advanced high school football programs as Fournette. Thus, when he arrived at BC he was ultimately somewhat of a project. He had to learn how to play the position at a D1 level. He also wasn’t a pass catcher. He didn’t have a single catch last season and was taken off the field in passing situations.

However, from last season to this season he has already shown progress to becoming a well-rounded football player. First, he was targeted three times, catching two of the passes and taking one of them 15-yards for a touchdown. He did have a bad drop on one of his targets, but you can see he has made progress, it isn't just talk. Second, for the most part he seemed more patient against UMass. He didn’t slam the gas pedal as soon as he got the ball in the backfield. He often let his blocks develop and then accelerate into the gap.

The progress so far is promising but it cannot stop there. He could still be a bit more patient. On a few tosses or outside runs against UMass he outran his blockers to the sideline and got stuffed for just a few or no yards. Like the play below, if he had let his blockers get out in front of him he could have cut up field later, behind them, leaving him one-on-one with the UMass safety with a lot of momentum. The outcome? A bigger play, possibly even a touchdown.

He also needs to refine his running style. His height/weight/speed carries him through tacklers. Most defenders don’t stand a chance taking him down by themselves in the open field thanks to that, but he could be even more dangerous if he learns to run with a lower pad level and more aggression.

As you can see in the GIF above, he looks a lot more like a rugby player when he runs with the ball and goes into contact. He is too upright into tackles, and though he often churns for a few more yards after contact, he is slowed down enough to allow other defenders to drag him down. If he runs lower and learns to drop his shoulder into contact he will start destroying defenders like Fournette does. He'll start running through them and carry on running on the other side (see below).

So, is AJ Dillon the next Leonard Fournette? Not yet, but he could be. Dillon has at least 11 more games this year and his entire junior season before he can enter the draft, that gives him almost two full years to work on his trade. Given the amount of reps he will get in that time with BC I firmly believe he will only continue to progress. He has the tools that Fournette has, he just needs to learn to harness them. His best football is ahead of him, and if he does harness those tools I absolutely believe he can reach the level of Fournette.

Thanks to Dillon it is an exciting time to follow BC football, and if I were you I would follow closely to see the rise of a potentially generational talent at running back.